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Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the United States deploys at least 1,500 paratroopers on U.S. soil in Minnesota on or before January 20, 2026, with an official and confirmed order for active-duty troops to physically move into Minnesota under presidential or Defense Department directive. Troop preparations, readiness postures, “prepare-to-deploy” orders, or soldiers placed on standby do not count as a deployment unless the forces actually enter Minnesota for the stated mission. Deployment must involve actual movement into the state with the intent to carry out federal duties. The market resolves to “No” if no such deployment of 1,500 or more paratroopers occurs by 23:59 UTC on January 20, 2026. Resolution will be based on official government announcements and reporting from major national and international news organizations.